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Known Unknowns: The Ongoing Crisis at Fukushima

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As the crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant recedes from mainstream media coverage the situation is presumed to be stabilising, largely because TEPCO and the Japanese government have confined themselves to positive news regarding cooling operations and the restoration of mains electricity power to the site.

Recently we have had reports of some food and water contamination in Fukushima Prefecture and reassurances that the situation is not worsening at the four crippled reactors and that radiation levels are remaining low.  The story, as far as the media is concerned, has largely become one of human interest regarding the clearly heroic efforts of staff and volunteers at the site.  But serious questions remain unanswered and largely unmentioned, specifically regarding the most threatening risks at the plant:

Edward Morse, a professor of nuclear engineering at the University of California, Berkeley, added that it will take huge amounts of water to compensate for the cracks in the containment pools that were uncovered by U.S. surveillance aircraft on Friday.

“The best thing to do is use as much of the Pacific Ocean as possible,” he said.

Ralph Vartabedian, W J Hennigan and Thomas H Maugh II What are the options for containing Fukushima’s radioactive emissions? LAT via Bellingham Herald 18 Mar 11

Say what?  “Cracks in the containment pools that were uncovered by U.S. surveillance aircraft on Friday?”

The same article refers to an estimate by the “alarmist” French Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN), the equivalent of our Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), regarding the degree of contamination released so far:


The French nuclear agency IRSN said Friday that Fukushima had already released 10 percent as much radioactivity as Chernobyl, but the agency has been criticized for being alarmist.

Ralph Vartabedian, W J Hennigan and Thomas H Maugh II What are the options for containing Fukushima’s radioactive emissions? LAT via Bellingham Herald 18 Mar 11

TEPCO has now apparently connected power to reactors Nos 5 and 6, which is a blessing, where spent fuel pools had been gradually heating up over recent days, and these are now reported to have coolant circulating.  But these are the least damaged of the reactors on the site, are some distance from the others and, like unit No 4, were in cold shutdown at the time of the earthquake.

As for reactors Nos 1-4, the cooling and power work is ongoing and there is some concern that one or all of them may have sustained damage to ancillary equipment, Nos 1-3 the reactor cores and, in the case of No 2, the containment.  As long ago as last Wednesday the chief of the NRC, Gregory Jaczko, in Congressional testimony, flatly stated that the spent fuel pool of reactor No 4, where 1,097 tonnes of spent fuel is 1,479 spent fuel rods are stored, had boiled dry.

Without going into an analysis of the radiation levels made public from near the plant and elsewhere, readings largely taken upwind of the prevailing weather patterns, it is plausible that there remains considerable cause for concern regarding the status of the plant and the risk to the Japanese population.  The Japanese health agency has revised the acceptable dosage of radiation for adults from 100 mSv to 250 mSv in recent days, according to NHK.

It is disturbing to note, also, that there has been information available to the Japanese authorities and the public which has not been released.  Information on which some of the concerns regarding Fukushima No 4’s spent fuel pool are possibly based:



The Manichai Daily news reports that the Japanese government has in its possession video footage of the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant taken by a U.S. military reconnaissance drone, but has yet to release the footage to the public, sources have revealed.

The footage taken from an RQ-4 Global Hawk drone was passed on to the Japanese government with permission for public release from the U.S. Air Force. U.S. military sources said that the decision to release the footage – or not – was up to the Japanese government.

Gary Mortimer – Japan reluctant to disclose footage of power plant taken by U.S. drone sUAS News 19 Mar 11

It is worth noting this aircraft has sophisticated thermal imaging technology which would be able to provide analysis of the temperature signature of the spent fuel pools and on the basis of which it is plausible to assume the NRC analysis was made.  We don’t know.  But the drone has been in use since 12 March 2011, before the comments were made.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) earlier expressed similar concerns:


“Unit-4 remains a major safety concern,” the Vienna-based agency said late yesterday in a statement. There was no information available on the level of water in the spent fuel pond, the agency said.

Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said yesterday there is a possibility there’s no water at the cooling pool. If exposed to air, the fuel rods could decay, catch fire and spew radioactive materials into the air.

Jonathan Tirone – Japan Unit-4 Pool’s Heat Exceeded Three-Times Normal, IAEA Says Bloomberg 18 Mar 11

Since then TEPCO has made a valiant effort to replenish the water in the spent fuel pools of reactors Nos 3 and 4 and it is earnestly hoped this effort is successful but if the pools are damaged this will be on ongoing and extremely hazardous undertaking.  Even TEPCO could not rule out late last week that there was an outside chance of “criticality” of the fuel stored in No 4 in a worst-case scenario.  Regular updates of the status of the reactors is both alarming and unspecific regarding the most critical problem areas.

It is a concern that we are not getting reliable information on the status of these units or the equally crippled reactor No 2.  Even a human interest story on the heroic staff contains suggestions of a general clampdown on information around the plant:


A family friend of one of the workers – the team battling to control the crisis at the power plant – said that email and phone access had been cut and one man had been unable to speak to his wife for days.

The move comes after one of the Fifty texted his wife in Japan saying that drinking water at the plant was running low, adding: “I feel like I’m coming down with something.”

Andrew Gilligan, Robert Mendick and Nikki Kininmonth – Japan nuclear crisis: ‘Fukushima Fifty’ cut off from family Telegraph 19 Mar 11

While acknowledging that there has been some excessively dramatic reporting on the part of the mainstream media over the past week it is equally disconcerting to have a virtual media blackout of specific, critical aspects of an event with such grave implications for all concerned.  An excellent and balanced analysis of the media management of this event can be found here.  Either TEPCO has neglected to mention important milestones in bringing the situation to a positive outcome, isn’t telling us everything or simply doesn’t know.

[Update] Replaced photo at top of diary with more recent image of Fukushima No 3, 21 Mar 11 (AP Photo/Tokyo Electric Power Co.) 21 Mar 11


Categories: Uncategorized.

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122 comments

  1. Shaun Appleby

    More problems at the MOX-fuelled reactor, No 3:


    After the government said Saturday that the unit appeared to be stabilizing after being doused with water, nuclear safety officials said the efforts may not have worked. Pressure was rising again inside the reactor’s containment vessel, requiring a release of radioactive gas to prevent a more dangerous buildup, said safety agency official Hidehiko Nishiyama.

    The venting is an “unavoidable measure to protect the containment vessel,” Nishiyama said. He warned that a larger amount of radiation would have to be released than when similar venting was done a week ago because more nuclear fuel have degraded since then.

    While battling Unit 3, emergency teams used an unmanned vehicle to spray water at another at-risk reactor Unit 4 while preparing to switch power back on for the first time since a March 11 earthquake and tsunami knocked out the plant’s crucial cooling systems.

    However, there was no guarantee the cooling systems would still work, even once power was restored.

    Pressure rises again in Japan reactor CBS 19 Mar 11

    Not the end of the world, we’ve been here before, but a sign that “stabilisation” is going to be an ongoing effort and things may be, in fact, slowly degrading.

  2. Shaun Appleby

    Fukushima Nos 1 and 2:


    The operator also stepped up efforts to reactivate the cooling system of the reactors No. 1 and 2 as power cables were connected to them, but the International Atomic Energy Agency chief indicated it was premature to have an optimistic view on the future of the troubled plant.

    1st water sprayed at Fukushima’s No. 4 reactor Kyodo 20 Mar 11

  3. spacemanspiff

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

    Massive Windspill Reported In Southern California

    I’m– I’m so sorry if this is disjointed (WHOOOSH) or confusing, but– I find myself the middle of a disaster of unprecedented proportions (WHOOOSH) and — oh the humanity — I’m having a hard time understanding how we progressives (WHOOOSH) could let this happen!?

    You see, I live in Southern California… just north of the Tehachapi Pass Wind Farm… and this morning a gang of lipstick lesbians lost control of their motorcycles and CRASHED into one of the turbines and now…

    THERE IS (WHOOOSH) FUCKING WIND (WHOOOSH) EVERYWHERE!!!!

    Go read that if you haven’t.  

  4. Shaun Appleby

    Fukushima No 3:


    Grayish smoke was seen billowing from a building that houses the No. 3 reactor of the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station on Monday, plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.

    After the smoke was spotted at the southeast of the building around 3:55 p.m., TEPCO said it had temporarily evacuated its workers from the site as it assessed the situation.

    URGENT: Grayish smoke seen billowing from Fukushima No. 3 reactor building Kyodo 21 Mar 11

    NHK reports it is from “the southeast edge of the roof of the reactor structure” in the vicinity of the spent fuel pool.

  5. Shaun Appleby

    Released recently via NHK (h/t Zero Hedge):

    Also from Die Welt:

    The time of these images is unclear, as well as the apparently contradictory temperature reading 0f 128°C published in Die Welt; NISA is reporting the surface temperature of unit No 3 as 62°C.  A comment from the Zero Hedge thread:


    Iam_Silverman: The [large] region shown as being (much) hotter than the surrounding area is consistent with where the fuel pool would be – not the reactor itself.  I’m not sure that the labels are correct.  It may be that the arrows are not precisely placed.  That large white-hot blob is most certainly NOT 62 degrees C!  What concerns me are the four hot areas surrounding what would be the primary containment (drywell).  Those look like the “diagonals” (or ECCS equipment rooms) where the two Core Spray and two RHR pump rooms are.  That is bad.

    Tyler Durden – Thermal Images From Fukushima Indicate Blistering 128 Degrees Celsius Zone In Reactor #3 Zero Hedge 21 Mar 11

    I am still convinced we are not getting the whole story.  The contamination levels being reported for produce and tap water at sites remote from the plant do not seem consistent with radiation levels which have been reported throughout the incident by NISA and TEPCO.  Hard to say at this point.

  6. Shaun Appleby

    I realise I’m just not letting go of this but frankly there seems to be a fairly high dissonance between an unknown reality and reporting.  Here’s an example of the NRC chairman, Gregory Jaczko, making another “speculative” comment regarding something we haven’t heard before, yesterday:

    Say what?


    …very high radiation fields… …[possibly] some amount of spent fuel being exposed… …possibly some material that’s been deposited on the ground…

    A reasonable consideration given the massive explosion we all observed but it’s hard not to wonder if Jaczko has access to information we haven’t been given.  He does submit that the “very high radiation fields” have been declining but still…  Seems inconsistent with TEPCO and NISA assertions over time.

  7. Shaun Appleby

    Today:


    …the government’s task force to tackle nuclear accidents instructed municipal governments near the crisis-hit Fukushima plant on Monday to ease conditions under which they require people to undergo mandatory decontamination.

    A radiation level of 100,000 counts per minute will be introduced as a new standard for decontamination, up from 6,000 counts per minute, the government said, adding that raising the bar will not endanger health.

    The government’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said the decision was made based on advice from domestic nuclear experts and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

    As the number of people who want to undergo radiation checks has surged, a lack of staff and equipment for the tests and decontamination was feared.

    Greater levels of radioactive materials found due to rain Kyodo 22 Mar 11

    Frankly I have no idea where 100k cpm fits into the Sievert scale, or even if it does, but a pattern seems to be emerging of shifting established “safety” limits as circumstances worsen.  I can sympathise with the constraints and demands placed on stretched facilities in the wake of the disasters which have crippled infrastructure but these developments are probably worth keeping an eye on over time.

  8. Shaun Appleby

    Some cooling pumps damaged:


    Cooling pumps at one of Japan’s crippled nuclear reactors are damaged beyond repair and will need to be replaced, officials learned Monday.

    The revelation dashed hopes for a quick end to the ongoing nuclear catastrophe at the leaking Fukushima Daiichi plant.

    An emergency order has been placed for new pumps for Unit 2 at the plant, but it’s unclear how quickly they would arrive, officials said.

    Lukas I Alpert Pump fails at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, slowing efforts to cool No. 2 reactor Daily News 21 Mar 11

    Power has been connected at this reactor, apparently.

  9. Shaun Appleby

    At Fukushima Daiichi Unit No 3:


    Firefighters from Tokyo and Osaka have begun spraying water into the No.3 reactor at the quake and tsunami-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

    The Tokyo fire department has already sprayed water into the reactor’s pool for cooling spent nuclear fuel rods for more than 20 hours.

    The department began its 4th water-spraying operation with the Osaka fire department on Tuesday at 3:10 PM local time.

    Firefighters resume spraying water to No.3 reactor NHK 22 Mar 11

    TEPCO has been paying special attention to No 3, having pumped 3,600 tons of water since spraying at this unit commenced.  Spent fuel inventory at No 3 is slightly less than the reactor core fuel mass of 94 tons.

  10. Shaun Appleby

    Still working to bring Unit No 3 under control:


    Hidehiko Nishiyama, the deputy-director general of Japan’s nuclear safety agency, later said the smoke at reactor No.3 had stopped and there was only a small amount at No.2.

    He gave no more details, but a TEPCO executive vice president, Sakae Muto, said the core of reactor No.1 was now a worry with its temperature at 380-390 Celsius (715-735 Fahrenheit).

    “We need to strive to bring that down a bit,” Muto told a news conference, adding that the reactor was built to run at a temperature of 302 C (575 F).

    Asked if the situation at the problem reactors was getting worse, he said: “We need more time. It’s too early to say that they are sufficiently stable.”

    Japan battles crippled nuclear plant, radiation fears grow Reuters 22 Mar 11

    Also recently the temperature of the common spent fuel pond, external to the reactor units but nearby on the site, has risen to the point where additional water pumping may soon be required if pumps can’t be restarted.  I am assuming TEPCO would be reluctant to pump sea water at this otherwise undamaged facility which contains fuel rods awaiting disposal.

  11. Shaun Appleby

    A cogent summary of the situation as of Tuesday:


    “They’ve made considerable progress bringing equipment to the plant and restoring power,” David Lochbaum, director of nuclear safety at the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said today on a conference call with reporters. “But they’re not out of the woods yet. They are working with razor-thin margins.”

    Tsuyoshi Inajima and Jeremy van Loon – Power Restored to Japan’s Nuclear Plant Amid Radiation Leaks Business Week 22 Mar 11

    The “razor thin margin” is what keeps me wondering about the status of the plant and trolling the limited and incomplete news from TEPCO and NISA for signs of genuine progress.  The long term prognosis for the site is bleak and may have implications for Japan’s future and economic recovery over time.


    The first four reactors at Fukushima will likely have to be decommissioned after being damaged by seawater brought in to keep them cool, Lochbaum said. It’s unclear if reactors No. 5 and 6 will be able to operate again, he said.

    “On March 10 they had a multibillion-dollar asset that generated a lot of electricity,” Lochbaum said. “On March 11 they had a multibillion-dollar liability that’s going to cost a lot to clean up.”

    Tsuyoshi Inajima and Jeremy van Loon – Power Restored to Japan’s Nuclear Plant Amid Radiation Leaks Business Week 22 Mar 11

    Still praying for the staff and workers at Fukushima but wondering why the reporting on this story remains relatively opaque and anodyne worldwide.

  12. Shaun Appleby

    With local produce are spreading to other products:


    Radioactive materials drastically exceeding legal limits set under the food sanitation law have been found in 11 types of vegetable grown in Fukushima Prefecture, including broccoli and cabbage, the health ministry said Wednesday.

    The Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry called on consumers not to eat the 11 vegetables, also including spinach and the ”komatsuna” leaf vegetable, produced in the prefecture, where a troubled nuclear power plant is located, for the time being.

    The prefecture’s vegetables grown in open-air environments are being distributed by the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations, or JA Zen-Noh. No shipments of these vegetables have been made since Monday, it said.

    If a person eats 100 grams of the vegetable with the largest detected amount of radioactive materials for about 10 days, it would be equal to ingesting half the amount of radiation a person typically receives from the natural environment in a year, the ministry said.

    If a person keeps eating the vegetable at the same pace, the amount of radiation intake could exceed the amount deemed safe, the ministry said.

    Over-limit radioactive materials found in 11 Fukushima vegetables Kyodo 23 Mar 11

    It is worth noting that some radiation level problems are also being found elsewhere than Fukushima Prefecture.

  13. Shaun Appleby

    Lights are on and power connected to Unit No 3 control room:



    The Tokyo Electric Power Company, or TEPCO, plans to test-run a cooling pump at the No. 3 reactor of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on Wednesday, in the latest bid to restore cooling functions at the plant.

    TEPCO said the electricity supply for the control room of the reactor was restored on Tuesday night for the first time since the devastating quake and tsunami on March 11th, allowing lights in the room to be turned on again.

    The reactor is the first among the troubled No. 1 through 4 reactors to have external power restored at its control room.

    No.3 reactor’s pump to undergo test run NHK 23 Mar 11

    Fingers crossed, been reading really alarming stuff about the MOX fuel and Plutonium 239 lately, not least of which it does not trigger radiation readings but is unbelievably toxic in small quantities.  Wishing them luck with fingers crossed.

  14. Shaun Appleby

    Coming from national authorities beyond the French Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN) waving arms and yelling “Merde” as mentioned in the diary.  Today a press release from the Austrian Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) which is startling in its simplicity:


    In the phase of March 12 to 13, the Fukushima emissions were mostly transported to the Pacific, eventually hitting the CTBTO station in Sacramento/California. In the phase March 14 to 15, on the other hand, most of the emissions were transported inland, hitting the CTBTO station in Takasaki, Japan. Based on simulated dilution factors and measurements, we were able to have a first rough source estimate.

    Regarding Iodine-131, the picture is relatively homogeneous. A source term of 1017 Bq per day would explain the measurements in Takasaki as well as Sacramento. The total 4-day emission of 4 1017 Bq is on the order of 20% of the total emissions of Iodine-131 that occurred during the Chernobyl accident. Regarding Cesium-137, the situation is a bit different. In the cloud eventually propagating to the United States, the ratio of Iodine-131 to Cesium-137 was about 30. This is similar to the Chernobyl accident. In Takasaki, however, this ratio was four.

    This would indicate a much larger Cesium-137 release in the second two-day period after the accident. Taking this together, the source terms would be about 3 1015 Bq during the first two days, and 3 1016 during the second two-day period. In sum, this could amount to about 50% of the Chernobyl source term of Cesium-137.

    Accident in the Japanese NPP Fukushima ZAMG 23 Mar 11

    Did ya’ get all that?  Not only does this make me think we are getting an enormous snow job from NISA and TEPCO but wonder if the INES scale will ultimately have a new level added of “eight.”  This isn’t even beginning to be over with.

  16. Shaun Appleby

    In “stabilising” the plant:


    Work to restore power and vital cooling functions at the troubled reactors of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant stricken by the March 11 powerful quake and tsunami has encountered difficulties, such as a rise in a reactor’s temperature and detection of high-level radiation, the government’s nuclear agency said Wednesday.

    All six reactors at the crisis-hit plant were reconnected to external power as of Tuesday night. Despite the positive move, the temperature in the No. 1 reactor vessel briefly topped 400 C degrees, requiring large amounts of seawater injected into the reactor to cool it down, according to the agency.

    Restoration work at Fukushima nuke plant faces challenges Kyodo 23 Mar 11

    Pardon my high-school physics but if you keep injecting water into a vessel with a 400°C heat source isn’t steam going to have to be released to relieve pressure?  Radioactive steam?  400°C is 100°C above the design temperature for the reactor under full load.

  17. Shaun Appleby

    Not good, I don’t like that black smoke:


    Tokyo (CNN) — Officials evacuated workers at the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant Wednesday afternoon as a black plume of smoke billowed above one of the reactors, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.

    The company said it was unclear what was causing the smoke, which rose above the plant as workers were continuing efforts to cool down fuel rods and restore power there.

    Smoke spews from reactor building at troubled nuclear plant CNN 23 Mar 11

    Trust me, it’s No 3.  The one with, by my calculation, has 330kg of plutonium-239, at least, among the spent fuel mass.

  18. Shaun Appleby

    Evidence of “neutron beams:”


    Tokyo Electric Power Co. said Wednesday it has observed a neutron beam, a kind of radioactive ray, 13 times on the premises of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant after it was crippled by the massive March 11 quake-tsunami disaster.

    TEPCO, the operator of the nuclear plant, said the neutron beam measured about 1.5 kilometers southwest of the plant’s No. 1 and 2 reactors over three days from March 13 and is equivalent to 0.01 to 0.02 microsieverts per hour and that this is not a dangerous level.

    […]

    But the measured neutron beam may be evidence that uranium and plutonium leaked from the plant’s nuclear reactors and spent nuclear fuels have discharged a small amount of neutron beams through nuclear fission.

    Neutron beam observed 13 times at crippled Fukushima nuke plant Kyodo 23 Mar 11

    So where is the fission taking place?  In other news:


    Edano said at a news conference on Wednesday that a computer forecast system has shown that radiation levels in some areas outside the 30-kilometer zone would exceed 100 millisieverts, which is the level that could affect the human thyroid if a person is exposed to it outdoors for 24 hours.

    Radiation could affect people outside 30km zone NHK 23 Mar 11

    100 mSv?  Beyond the 30km evacuation zone?  Very not good.

  19. Shaun Appleby

    The “stabilising” narrative is not going to last much longer at this rate:

    @reuters FLASH: Japan nuclear agency: Radiation level at Fukushima reactor No.2 at highest level recorded so far

  20. Shaun Appleby

    Of the common control room of Fukushima Units 1 and 2:



    While the maximum vessel temperature set by the reactors’ designers is 302 C degrees, the surface temperature of the No. 1 reactor vessel briefly topped 400 C before dropping to around 305 C by 4 p.m., and that of the No. 3 reactor vessel stood at about 305 C in the morning, the agency said.

    Although the facilities are not expected to start melting at those temperatures, according to agency spokesman Hidehiko Nishiyama, TEPCO increased the amount of seawater injected into the No. 1 reactor by nine times to help cool it down.

    Nishiyama said TEPCO injected massive amounts of water into the No. 1 reactor carefully so as not to raise the pressure in the reactor. A rise in the pressure increases the risk of damage to the facility and would require a release of radioactive steam from the reactor to lower the pressure.

    At the No. 2 reactor, workers have been unable to replace a pump to help revive its internal cooling system since Friday as high-level radiation of at least 500 millisieverts per hour was detected at its turbine building, the spokesman said.

    Although the troubled reactors remained unstable Wednesday, Nishiyama defended measures currently being taken by TEPCO to manage the crisis. ”We have come close to reestablishing sustainable cooling systems. I believe we are implementing the best possible ways and hope to stabilize the reactors as soon as possible,” he said.

    Caption: A Tokyo Electric Power Co. employee checks reactor data in a control room, lit only by flashlights due to a power outage, for the No. 1 and No. 2 reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Fukushima Prefecture on March 23, 2011. Efforts have continued to bring the crippled reactors under control since the devastating March 11 quake and tsunami. (Photo taken and supplied by Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency)(Kyodo)

    Smoke disrupts nuke plant restoration work, radiation fears reach Tokyo Kyodo 24 Mar 11

    Apparently the control room instrumentation is working, at least partially, in spite of the absence of lights although the radiation in the control room remains at levels requiring rotating shifts.

  21. Shaun Appleby

    Of the Fukushima area from the US Department of Energy:

    Today the U.S. Department of Energy released data recorded from its Aerial Monitoring System as well as ground detectors deployed along with its Consequence Management Response Teams. The information has also been shared with the government of Japan as part of the United States’ ongoing efforts to support Japan with the recovery and response effort.

    On March 15, 33 experts from the Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) arrived in Japan along with more than 17,200 pounds of equipment. After initial deployments at U.S. consulates and military installations in Japan, these teams have utilized their unique skills, expertise and equipment to help assess, survey, monitor and sample areas for radiation. The 33 team members joined another six DOE personnel already in Japan.

    Since arriving in Japan, NNSA teams have collected and analyzed data gathered from more than 40 hours of flights aboard Department of Defense aircraft and thousands of ground monitoring points.

    The Situation in Japan (Updated 03/22/11) US DOE/NNSA Mar 22 11

    I’ve uploaded a snapshot from the powerpoint available at the link provided.  These are in mRem, not mSv, but the four-day limit for “public health action” is 1000mRem; my back-of-a-napkin calculation for 12.5mRem/hr over four days is 1200mRem so this is consistent with the evacuation zone with the possible exception of the small 12.5mRem/hr area outside of the inner radius in the map shown.

  22. Shaun Appleby

    Another insightful Times piece on some of the engineering challenges facing responders at Fukushima:


    “We’ve got at least 10 days to two weeks of potential drama before you can declare the accident over,” said Michael Friedlander, who worked as a nuclear plant operator in the United States for 13 years.

    Western nuclear engineers have become increasingly concerned about a separate problem that may be putting pressure on the Japanese technicians to work faster: salt buildup inside the reactors, which could cause them to heat up more and, in the worst case, cause the uranium to melt, releasing a range of radioactive material.

    Keith Bradsher – Optimism Is on Hold at Japan Plant as New Problems Arise NYT 23 Mar 11

    Well worth a read if you are following the specifics of the incident.  I expect the major networks to soon start another round of made-for-viewer technical analysis as the situation progresses.

  23. Shaun Appleby

    From a concerned scientist:


    As Japanese workers have powered up reactors in recent days, shorts or other electrical problems could have ignited debris from last week’s containment building explosions, said David Lochbaum, director of the nuclear safety project at the Union of Concerned Scientists, in a Wednesday phone briefing for reporters.

    Smoke from such a cause is not necessarily something to worry about. On the other hand, it is also possible that the spent-fuel pool at No. 3 has overheated to the point where water has boiled away and exposed fuel assemblies, causing them to overheat and release particulate matter into the atmosphere. That could cause plumes of radioactive smoke like the black smoke seen Wednesday.

    “That might be an additional cause for concern,” said Lochbaum.

    Peter Grier – Japan nuclear crisis: What’s in the smoke emerging from Fukushima I? Christian Sciene Monitor 23 Mar 11

    I guess.

  24. Shaun Appleby

    Ho-boy…  Just don’t know what to think sometimes:


    An NHK helicopter crew has confirmed what appears to be steam rising from No. 1, 2, 3 and 4 reactor buildings at the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

    This is the first time that steam has been seen coming out of the No.1 reactor.

    The helicopter crew was filming from a location more than 30 kilometers from the plant shortly before 7:00 AM on Thursday.

    Steam rising from 4 reactors at Fukushima plant NHK 24 Mar 11

    Might be worth tuning in to the cable networks now that there is something to film.

  25. Shaun Appleby

    “Safe” again for infants:


    Radioactive iodine in Tokyo water drops below limit for infants. #Fukushima

    Must have been the rain recently that spiked the levels.

  26. Shaun Appleby

    Engineering dramas in decades, pray they pull the irons out of the fire, it is a close run thing.

  27. Shaun Appleby

    From the Japan Times:



    A former acting head of the Atomic Energy Commission called Thursday for the government to tell the public how radioactive emissions have spread from the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant in the past and to predict future radiation exposure risks according to distance for the most critical scenarios.

    In a telephone interview with The Japan Times, Shunichi Tanaka, former acting chairman of the commission, said it was irresponsible for the government to force people to evacuate their homes without disclosing concrete data on the calculated exposure risks they face from wind-borne radioactive materials.

    “The government has not yet said in concrete terms why evacuation is necessary to the people who have evacuated,” he said.

    The AEC is an independent entity that sets the nation’s basic policies on development and use of nuclear power.

    Tanaka said Wednesday’s public release of past radiation exposure risks as calculated by the Nuclear Safety Commission was a positive step toward informing the public.

    Tai Kawabata – Reveal fallout data: ex-nuke chief Japan Times 25 Mar 11

    My understanding is that the government starting releasing some of the SPEEDI (System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) data yesterday but only for recent weeks, not predictive.  Also in the diagram I believe that the control rooms are common for units Nos 1-2 and 3-4 but the exact locations of these facilities are apparently classified under anti-terrorism precautions.

  28. Shaun Appleby

    On the moral and social implications of the Fukashima incident:


    Words I hoped never to read in a news report, like loss of coolant accident (LOCA), exposed core, hydrogen explosion: Here they are. Except for those who can identify ways to contribute directly to the management of the disaster, we scientists have only one job right now — to help governments, journalists, students, and the man and woman on the street understand in what strange ways we have changed their world.

    We must explain, over and over, the concept of “afterheat,” the fire that you can’t put out, the generation of heat from fission fragments now and weeks from now and months from now, heat that must be removed. Journalists are having such a hard time communicating this concept because it is so unfamiliar to them and nearly everyone they are writing for. Every layman feels that every fire can be put out.

    We must also explain the strange temporal features of radioactive spent fuel. Hour by hour, week by week, year by year, one isotope passes grief to a second and the second passes grief to a third. As the tragedy emerges at Fukushima, the moral complexity is overwhelming. The radiation is coming primarily from short-lived isotopes, and it is lethal in hours for anyone who is near the plant. We are watching a civilized society facing Sophie’s Choice writ large, as the Japanese government decides how to use workers and soldiers and volunteers at the site, trading their large doses of radiation against an outcome where far more people will face the statistical risks of a shortened life.

    Robert Socolow – Reflections on Fukushima: A time to mourn, to learn, and to teach Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 21 Mar 11

    Worth a read for those of us in any industry relying on technologies which have deeper social implications and “disaster recovery” strategies which are rarely tested under full stress including health, public utilities and information technology.

  29. Shaun Appleby

    Latest IAEA status update:


    Reactor pressure is increasing in Unit 1, pressure readings are unreliable in Unit 2, and stable in Unit 3 as water continues to be injected through their feed-water pipes. The temperature at the feed-water nozzle of the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is decreasing at Units 1 (243 ºC) and 3 (about 185 ºC), and stable at Unit 2 (about 102 ºC).

    IAEA Briefing on Fukushima Nuclear Accident (24 March 2011, 21.30 UTC) IAEA 24 Mar 11

    No mention of the spent fuel pools in this update.

  30. Shaun Appleby

    From one of the two major dailies in the US dissenting on the limited narratives originating with Japanese authorities:


    Nuclear scientists and policy experts say the quality and quantity of information coming out of Fukushima has left gaping holes in their understanding of the nuclear disaster nearly two weeks after it began.

    Ralph Vartabedian – Lack of data from Japan distresses nuclear experts LAT 24 Mar 11

    I’m guessing US authorities are getting a bit “antsy” about all of this and yet find themselves in a ticklish diplomatic dilemma, as someone within the administration noted, “they are there at the invitation of Japan and cannot become the primary source of information.”  Then who?

  31. Shaun Appleby


    @W7VOA Asahi Shimbun, quoting Japan NRC, says #Fukushima event has become a Level 6 on INES scale.

    This from Steve Herman of VOA, last Western reporter out of the evacuation zone.

  32. Shaun Appleby


    NEWS ADVISORY: Reactor vessel of Fukushima plant No. 3 unit may have been damaged: Gov’t

    Kyodo

    Great; inevitable discovery after radiation injuries yesterday?

  33. Shaun Appleby

    Of fuel rod damage:


    TEPCO announced that zirconium-95 was found in sea water near the exhaust water outlet of Fukushima I Nuclear Plant.

    Zirconium is used in cladding of the nuclear fuel rods. “It is possible that part of cladding melted when the used fuel rods were exposed, and dousing of the reactors washed it away into the ocean,” according to Yomiuri Shinbun quoting an expert (in Japanese; 8:20AM JST 3/25/2011).

    #Fukushima I Nuke Plant: Zirconium-95 Found in Sea Water Near Plant Yomiuri Shinbun (Japanese) via Ex-SKF 24 Mar 11

    Just another piece of the puzzle, impossible to say which reactor(s).

  34. Shaun Appleby

    Unclear message:


    @W7VOA: Top #Japan gov’t spokesman now essentially saying perhaps it’s best if those in the 20km-30km zone from #Fukushima-1 voluntarily evacuate.

    2 minutes ago

  35. Shaun Appleby

    One step back:


    NEWS ADVISORY: Radiation from water halts work at troubled nuke plant’s Nos. 1-2 units (14:27)

    Kyodo

    Are they winning?  Time should be on their side unless there is some criticality occurring somewhere but “decay heat” tapers off and then stays constant for a long time.

  36. Shaun Appleby

    Seems the evacuation of a larger area is being planned:


    Japan Gov’t: “No immediate likelihood the plant will stop emitting radiation.”

    Speaks for itself.

  37. Shaun Appleby

    Now in the forefront again:


    Japan’s nuclear safety agency says it is highly likely that the Number 3 reactor of the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been damaged, leading to the leak of high levels of radiation.

    The agency was speaking to reporters about Thursday’s accident in which 3 workers were exposed to radiation from water on the floor inside the Number 3 reactor building. The level of radioactivity was about 10,000 times higher than the water inside a normally operating nuclear reactor.

    The agency said while the reactor appears to have partially retained its function to contain radiation leaks, there’s a strong possibility that some part of the reactor is now damaged and the containment function is weakening.

    Nuke safety agency: No.3 reactor likely be damaged NHK 25 Mar 11

    Back to where we started only worse.

  38. Shaun Appleby

    Now being used:


    Workers began pumping fresh water into the Number One reactor on Friday afternoon and into the Number 3 reactor in the evening.

    They are now preparing to start injecting fresh water into the Number 2 reactor.

    Fresh water starts flowing into troubled reactors NHK 25 Mar 11

    The high volumes of salt water pumped in recent weeks may not only damage equipment through corrosion but also possibly leave tons of salt crusts on fuel assemblies which could block coolant flows.

  39. Shaun Appleby

    By Prime Minister Kan:


    The leader of Japan’s government Friday evening expressed pessimism about the current state of the Fukushima 1 complex. It is still emitting radiation into the atmosphere, and there are worries about a possible breach of the core of one of the six reactors. Temperatures of exposed used fuel rods also remain a serious concern.  

    Japan’s prime minister, Naoto Kan, looking somber in a nationally televised briefing, described the situation at the damaged Fukushima 1 nuclear power plant as remaining “very grave and serious.”

    Kan says vigilance is needed because we have not reached an optimistic point. But he adds things do not appear to be getting worse.

    Nuclear engineer Masashi Goto, who resigned his job as a power plant designer over safety concerns, says it is difficult to predict what will happen next at the stricken plant. He notes events that were considered impossible at Fukushima have already occurred.

    Steve Herman – Japan’s PM Pessimistic About Crippled Nuclear Complex VOA 25 Mar 11

    A slow-motion disaster.

  40. Shaun Appleby

    The Times has made a significant edit to a recent story, it previously contained this:


    Concerns about Reactor No. 3 have surfaced before. Japanese officials said nine days ago that the reactor vessel may have been damaged.

    Hidehiko Nishiyama, deputy director-general of the Japan Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, mentioned damage to the reactor vessel on Friday as a possible explanation of how water in the adjacent containment building had become so alarmingly radioactive. A senior nuclear executive who insisted on anonymity but has broad contacts in Japan said that there was a long vertical crack running down the side of the reactor vessel itself. The crack runs down below the water level in the reactor and has been leaking fluids and gases, he said.

    The severity of the radiation burns to the injured workers are consistent with contamination by water that had been in contact with damaged fuel rods, the executive said.

    “There is a definite, definite crack in the vessel – it’s up and down and it’s large,” he said. “The problem with cracks is they do not get smaller.”

    David Jolly, Hiroko Tabuchi and Keith Bradshaw – Japan Encourages a Wider Evacuation From Reactor Area NYT via Democratic Underground 25 Mar 11

    Now it says merely this:


    Concerns about Reactor No. 3 have surfaced before. Japanese officials said nine days ago that the reactor vessel may have been damaged.

    Hidehiko Nishiyama, deputy director-general of the Japan Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, mentioned damage to the reactor vessel on Friday as a possible explanation of how water in the adjacent containment building had become so radioactive.

    David Jolly, Hiroko Tabuchi and Keith Bradshaw – Japan Encourages a Wider Evacuation From Reactor Area NYT 25 Mar 11

    Either way that’s a significant edit.

  41. Shaun Appleby

    Should be able to identify the status of Unit No 3 from the following cocktail of radio nucleotides identified in the “standing water:”


    Radioactive Nuclide  Concentration (Bq/cm3)

    Cl-38                1.6×10^6

    As-74                3.9×10^2

    Y-91                 5.2×10^4

    I-131                2.1×10^5

    Cs-134               1.6×10^5

    Cs-136               1.7×10^4

    Cs-137               1.8×10^6

    La-140               3.4×10^2

    News Release NISA/METI 25 Mar 11

    They are now saying the two poor blokes affected have signs of “internal radiation.”

  43. Shaun Appleby

    The ocean is getting a hammering:


    The operator of Japan’s disaster-hit Fukushima nuclear plant has detected radioactive iodine 1250 times the legal limit in Pacific Ocean waters nearby, the nuclear safety agency said today.

    In a test by the Tokyo Electric Power Co, “radioactive iodine-131 at 1250.8 times the legal limit was detected several hundred metres offshore near reactor number one,” the agency official said.

    Radioactive iodine levels soar off Japan AFP via Australian 26 Mar 11

    Lord knows what other radio nucleotides are joining it with longer half-lives.

  44. Shaun Appleby

    Unusually high levels found:


    The company says the latest reading is 10-million times the usual radioactivity of water circulating within a normally operating reactor.

    TEPCO says the radioactive materials include 2.9-billion becquerels of iodine-134, 13-million becquerels of iodine-131, and 2.3-million becquerels each for cesium 134 and 137.

    These substances are emitted during nuclear fission inside a reactor core.

    The company says the extremely contaminated water may stem from damaged fuel in the reactor, and are trying to determine how the leakage occurred.

    University of Tokyo graduate school professor Naoto Sekimura says the leak may come from the suppression chamber of the Number 2 reactor, which is known to be damaged. The chamber is designed to contain overflows of radioactive substances from the reactor.

    Extreme radiation detected at No.2 reactor NHK 27 Mar 11

    Also, high radiation levels found outside of evacuation zone:


    Radiation levels 40 percent higher than the yearly limit for the general public has been detected just over 30 kilometers from the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.

    The Science Ministry says a reading of 1.4 millisieverts was taken on Wednesday morning in Namie Town northwest of the plant.

    High radiation detected 30 km from Fukushima plant NHK 27 Mar 11

    The locality of these readings confirms the Department of Energy aerial surveys reported earlier and tends to indicate that other “hot spots” may be found outside of the zone.

  45. Shaun Appleby

    From a TEPCO statement:


    Tokyo Electric was not able to confirm how much the actual amount of radiation was at the No. 2 reactor because the radioactivity level was too high for workers to continue measuring.

    At a radiation level of 1,000 millisieverts per hour, people could suffer a decrease in the number of lymphocytes — a type of white blood cell — in just 30 minutes, and half of the people could die within 30 days by staying in such conditions for four hours.

    Woes deepen over radioactive water at nuke plant, sea contamination Kyodo 28 Mar 11

    TEPCO has also commissioned the the Japan Atomic Energy Agency and the Japan Chemical Analysis Center to check soil samples from the plant for plutonium contamination.

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