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GOP Super Tuesday: Open Thread

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The delegate math says that Romney gets a boost today; Santorum failed to qualify for delegates in some districts of Ohio and is not even on the ballot in Virginia.  But lacking the clear wins he desperately needs in Ohio and Tennessee, where polling indicates statistical ties, will Romney see his own shadow and retreat back to more weeks of interminable campaigning?  

Unless Santorum squeaks out wins in both states, probably not:


…once the Death Star got focused, Santorum’s numbers began to bleed. Tennessee would appear to be the key. If Santorum holds on there, he can argue plausibly that Romney still cannot close the deal with the voters he needs the most in the fall. A Republican candidate with a demonstrable weakness in the South is every Republican playa’s worst nightmare. But this still remains a contest between an actual campaign and three cults of personality. ‘Twas ever thus.

Charles P Pierce – How Romneybot 2.0 Built His Super Tuesday Death Star Esquire 6 Mar 12

Now this is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.


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149 comments

  1. Shaun Appleby

    Got to agree with Booman on this:


    A good night for Romney will be if he can win Ohio, Virginian, Massachusetts, and Vermont. A great night will be if he can also win in Tennessee and come in second behind Gingrich in Georgia. A bad night will be if he comes in third in Georgia and loses in Ohio and Tennessee.

    If Romney has a good or great night, we’ll probably see the electorate start to rally around him. But if he has a bad night, the contest will continue in its present form, and move to Alabama and Mississippi and Missouri with Romney looking to take a beating.

    Booman – What to Look for Tonight Booman Tribune 6 Mar 12

    In spite of Romney’s recent upward trend I’m kind of hoping Santorum wins both Ohio and Tennessee, but it seems unlikely at this point.

  2. fogiv

    back to the hotel to follow returns (and work on a proposal), but all this dive has is Fox News (barf).

    what’s happening?

  3. HappyinVT

    Romney with .6% of the vote counted (happens to be in the area where my nephew and his wife live).

  4. Shaun Appleby

    Places third in both Tennessee and Oklahoma as well as Georgia ya gotta’ wonder.  And I’m guessing turnout, when we finally get the figures, will be lowest in states Romney wins.  And Ron Paul gets 40% in Virginia?

    He may win the requisite delegates but, sheesh, what a weak showing.

  7. HappyinVT

    that said the Romney folks “spinning/conceding they may not be able to get a majority of delegates.  They’ll appeal to RNC.”

    Hmmmmm

  10. Peter Jukes

    Just seen Gingrich talking about eviscerating something, and algae. Problem is, he has algae issues too (promoted it in a vid) and eviscerating him would be a herculean labour.

    Meanwhile my favourite tweet:

    Gewt Ningrich is more fun to say than Ritt Momney or Sick Rantorum

  11. Shaun Appleby

    If Romney loses Ohio his inevitable nomination is totally in quicksand; delegates notwithstanding.  And with Alabama and Mississippi coming up he’ll be slowly sinking there for a while.  Sheesh, this is turning out to be an interesting night.

  13. Strummerson

    Wouldn’t that be served best by him dropping out and endorsing Santorum?  Seems like if that happened, Romney would be over.  No?

    It’s gotta be his everestian ego.

  14. HappyinVT

    Marcy Kaptur is up by 10% over Kucinich with 20% in.

    Joe the Plumber is down pretty big in his primary.

  17. HappyinVT

    “If Romney loses Ohio and Tennessee, there’s no justification for him being the nominee.”

    (I believe he has said he will not vote for Romney.  Of course, I once said I wouldn’t vote for Hillary in the heat of 2008.)

  20. HappyinVT

    Santorum looks like he got one more delegate out of CO than Romney will get out of OH.  And they each got the same number, nine, when they came in second in those races.

  21. fogiv

    fox news (barf) is reporting that in OH, about 12k votes went to rick perry and huntsman (who are still apparently on the ballot).

    atm, krauthammer is painting mitt has a weak, weak candidate.

  24. HappyinVT

    In Ohio, a candidate has to win by more than .25% of the vote to avoid a mandatory recount. In practice that means the victory has to be more than about 2,000 votes. That’s just about where Romney is right now.

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/a…

  25. HappyinVT

    Jean Schmidt is down in her primary 49%-43% with 99% in.

    Hell, that makes this night worthwhile … can’t see Brad Wenstrup can be much worse.  (fingers crossed)

  26. HappyinVT

    “The great thing about this primary process is the smiling, welcoming image our party is presenting the country”

    followed by

    “except the sluts of course”

  27. Shaun Appleby

    Romney won all the counties that Obama did against McCain and Santorum won all the ones McCain did.  Hmmm…  Is that good or bad?

  28. HappyinVT

    Candidate % of Votes Number Of Votes

    Obama, Barack (D) 100.00% 489,883

    Romney, Mitt (R) 37.86% 409,551

    Santorum, Rick (R) 37.20% 402,421

    per SoS

  29. Shaun Appleby

    Romney took in a substantial delegate haul tonight but somehow that doesn’t seem to matter.  In 2008 it was considered clever when everyone woke up one day and realised there was no clear path to victory for Hillary; the same is now unfolding for Romney’s pack of hounds baying at his heels and yet he is somehow flawed and seemingly unable to close the deal.  What gives?

    Gingrich sounds like quitting but with Alabama and Mississippi coming up soon, who knows?  He certainly doesn’t like “Wall Street” Willard very much.  Santorum can’t believe his luck and is answering the call, his Ohio speech wasn’t bad at all, such as it was.  Can’t see his “little campaign that could” not huffing and puffing on for a while longer.  And Ron Paul has probably already made bookings at a modest hotel in Tampa.

    Like it or not the die is already cast, isn’t it?  From a strictly political standpoint it is hard to believe that establishment Republicans will condone another month or more of expensive and destructive campaigning when there is no alternative.  They must really not like Romney, not care about the presidency or be just plain terrified of their own truculent constituencies rising up against them.  What can they say to their long-standing values voter coalition now?

    “Well, here’s another nice mess you’ve gotten us into!”

  30. Shaun Appleby

    On Romney’s 2012 weakness:


    Here are four numbers: 37%, 45%, 60%, 41%. Here are four more: 24%, 32%, 35%, 17%. Those are the numbers for Rommey, respectively, from the 2008 caucuses in North Dakota, Alaska, Colorado, and Minnesota, and from the 2012 caucuses in the same states.

    David Weigel – Romney and Galactus: Five Lessons from Super Tuesday Slate 7 Mar 12

    How do you explain that to your prospective donors?

  31. Shaun Appleby

    Lots of folks are trying to do the delegate math on the back of their napkins this morning, and it’s not easy:


    Much of the punditry talks about how impossible it is for the not-Romney’s to get to 1,144. And they’re pretty much right-Santorum needs 968 of the remaining 1,541 delegates. Gingrich needs 1,039 of them. Paul needs 1,097. Sure, it’s mathematically possible for them to get to 1,144, but it just ain’t gonna happen.

    But what they can do is prevent Romney from getting the delegates he needs, which would then give us that mythical creature called the “brokered convention.” But that’s just fantasyland. It won’t happen.

    Kos – The GOP’s messed-up delegate race Daily Kos 7 Mar 12

    The thing is, the GOP rules and schedule are so screwed up that it is very hazy around the edges; and hard to declare a presumptive winner or identify when the nomination is locked up.  So on it goes with a perplexed Romney wondering just what the heck he has to do to win this thing.

    Looks like the Republicans really created a bit of a mess for themselves and little comfort for those seeking an end to this ordeal.

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