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Since 2008 – Progress Through Politics

Open Thread: The Race is On

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Five days to go and after a week of nail-biting, media horse-racing and a deadly storm which it seems we weathered as best we could there are some good signs for the Obama campaign.

Florida and Virginia, all but out of the game a week ago by consistent but narrow margins, are back on the menu:


Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, which once looked like they were slipping more into the Romney orbit, have pulled back to essentially even-money contests.

The seven jump ball states with a total of 94 electoral votes are Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), and Virginia (13).

Charlie Cook – Chance of Split Electoral-Popular Vote Very Real National Journal 30 Oct 12

Recent polling in both states, while marginal, shows an occasional Obama lead:


Quinnipiac University, on behalf of CBS and the NY Times, stuck a dagger in Romney’s Ohio hopes by showing President Barack Obama up 50-45, as well as a one-point lead in Florida and two-point lead in Virginia.

Kos – Obama’s crazy good polling day Daily Kos 31 Oct 12

This is an improvement, though well within the margin of error.  Keep the faith Mooses, this is close but Romney has failed to move the needle in the past ten days and time is running out.  He’s in Florida tomorrow if that is any indication of the state of his internal polling.


Categories: Uncategorized.

/ 123 Comments

123 comments

  1. Shaun Appleby

    From the Washington Post opinion columns:


    Obama campaign has released a new Web video on the state of the race, including this claim from campaign manager Jim Messina:


    We are ahead or tied in every single battleground state. That means that Mitt Romney has to win not only all the toss-ups, but also a couple of states where we have a clear lead, in order to have any chance of winning the presidency.

    According to averages, the only swing state where Romney clearly leads is North Carolina. Romney is up one in Florida, and Virgina is tied. Obama is up in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. So if you believe the averages, in addition to North Carolina, Romney does have to win a host of states where he’s either tied or behind. Obama has more maneuvering room: If he wins just the states where he’s leading, he secures reelection, and he also obviously has a shot at all the ones that are tied.

    Greg Sargent – The Morning Plum: Why Romney is struggling in Ohio Washington Post 31 Oct 12

    Booyah!

  2. Shaun Appleby

    If you were wondering about the likliehood of Romney’s head fake toward Michigan or Pennsylvania having any substance:


    Senior Obama campaign adviser David Axelrod is confident that the president’s reelection chances aren’t  in danger in Michigan, Minnesota or Pennsylvania, despite tightening polls there. And he’s willing to put his money slightly above where his mouth is.

    When pressed by MSNBC host Joe Scarborough on Wednesday morning about the slimmer margins in these states, where Obama once led comfortably, Axelrod said he would shave his mustache live on “Morning Joe” if President Obama lost any of the three.

    “I will come on ‘Morning Joe,’ and I will shave off my mustache of 40 years if we lose any of those three states,” Axelrod said

    Scarborough reciprocated, promising to grow a mustache of his own if Obama wins Florida or North Carolina.

    Natalie Jennings – Axelrod bets his mustache on three states Washington Post 31 Oct 12

    Heh.  Morning Joe, now with caterpillars.

  3. Shaun Appleby

    As election day approaches the polls get more accurate:


    Despite Ohio’s demographics and history, the polls suggest that Obama holds the votes necessary to win the Buckeye State and the presidency. If the polls look the same heading into Election Day, undecided voters wouldn’t be enough to sway the outcome of the state and Romney’s chances would hinge on low Democratic turnout or his ability to peel away Obama supporters.

    If there was more time between now and November 6, perhaps Romney would stand a chance of mounting a comeback. But the space between Obama’s share of the vote and 49 percent isn’t the only window that’s closing; Romney is nearly out of time.

    Nate Cohn – Romney’s Window In Ohio Is Closing New Republic 31 Oct 12

    Yes…  And headed for Florida to head off a slumping lead there.

  4. rfahey22

    Unfortunately for the poor people of Ohio, the state has been polled about a bajillion times over the past month.  Romney has led in one or two of them.  Overall, the vote will be close, but in terms of the likely victor, I think there can be little doubt that all signs point to Obama winning.

  6. HappyinVT

    cliffschecter 4:16pm via Web

    Call it hunch, but seems Chrysler execs annoyed w/Mitt & Trumps Jeep/China lies MT @RalphGilles: @realDonaldTrump you are full of shit!

    Ralph Gilles is VP of Product Design for Chrysler.

  8. virginislandsguy

    The BLS report will be the final one before the election. Most likely, only an extreme report will have a significant effect. A very bad one is not likely but a great one is.

    Here is the chart of the ADP report showing October +158k jobs.

    CW is calling for +125k jobs. I’ll go to the high side of +150k and +25k for previous months adjustments.

    The U3 unemployment number is a real crapshoot. CW is saying 7.8% +/- .1%. What makes this a difficult call is the extent of discouraged workers reentering the job search market. I’ll go with the optimistic number of 7.7% but hoping it’s 7.5% just to watch Jack Welch stroke out on CNBC with Larry Kudlow.

  9. janicket

    On what the author posits are disturbing parallels to the racist devolution of Reconstruction:

    http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com…

    He opens with this:

    A tall, caramel-complexioned man marched across the steps of the U.S. Capitol to be sworn into office as a jubilant crowd watched history being made.

    The man was an African-American of mixed-race heritage, an eloquent speaker whose election was hailed as a reminder of how far America had come.

    But the man who placed his hand on the Bible that winter day in Washington wasn’t Barack Obama. He was Hiram Rhodes Revels, the first African-American elected to the U.S. Senate.

    His election and that of many other African-Americans to public office triggered a white backlash that helped destroy Reconstruction, America’s first attempt to build an interracial democracy in the wake of the Civil War.

    To some historians, Revels’ story offers sobering lessons for our time: that this year’s presidential election is about the past as well as the future. These historians say Obama isn’t a post-racial president but a “post-Reconstructionist” leader. They say his presidency has sparked a white backlash with parallels to a brutal period in U.S. history that began with dramatic racial progress.

    And goes on to develop his thesis with troubling observations on a number of points.  It’s an unsettling read — not least given the “nothing to see here, move along, and besides, any racism is coming from the Dems” comments he’s garnered from the rightwing side.

  11. Peter Jukes

    But when will soapblox upgrade to accept iFrame? The Rommentum looks like a typical variation now. Good thing we’ve learned to chill with the up and downs of polls over the last five years of Obama.

    Meanwhile, for LOLs and giggles, let me post Rupert’s most recent response to the end of the Romney surge, and my response to my favourite media mogul

  12. Shaun Appleby

    Has blundered straight into an intelligence quagmire with their attempts to “expose” the Benghazi tragedy and blame Obama or Clinton:


    Having previously been accused of leaking classified information about the killing of Osama bin Laden for political purposes, [the Obama administration] saw that exposing the covert side of the Benghazi operation to protect itself weeks before the election would be fraught with political risks.

    Massimo Calabresi – Report: Benghazi Presence Was a CIA Operation Time 3 Nov 12

    You may have heard it here first.  Good on ya, Fox; anti-patriotic, bigfooting chowder-heads.

  13. virginislandsguy

    Or so Bill Keller of votingforsatan.com tells us. Here is Bill “wearing the Mormon magical underwear”.

    On the other hand, I am encouraged to join 1,671,624 other souls and “VOTE FOR JESUS!” by the eponymous voteforjesus.com. They helpfully provide “Instructions for each state how to write in a vote for Jesus as President (Click Here)”

    Now, there is actually a point I am trying to make here. I’ve felt all along that at least 10% of the McCain Fundie voters would not vote for Romney due to his Mormonism. Instead of 75% going R, I think the 2012 number will be less than 70%. This would equate to approx. 1.5M less votes.

    The 2 examples above are some of the below-the-radar screen action I expect is going on at the Fundie grassroots. This is part of the 4-5M votes less that I think Romney will get than McCain due to Mitt being a dick and a fundamentally crappier candidate.

  15. Strummerson

    Here’s mine.  I’m going conservative, mostly because of nerves (conservative, not unthinkable upset):

    President Obama: 290 (50.6% pop. vote)

    Other guy: 248 (49.1% pop. vote)

    Battlegrounds: Obama takes NV, IA, WI, MI, OH, PA, VA; Other guy takes CO, NH, NC FL

    Senate predictions: Warren and Nelson and McCaskill win, Kerrey fizzles.  Nothing else exciting happens.  Maybe Mourdock goes down, but I doubt it.

    House predictions: West, Walsh, and Bachmann all lose, complicating the narrative that moderation is bad for the GOP.

    Fall-out: GOP will blame Sandy and Christie and moderation, in spite of Walsh, West, and Bachmann.  Maybe they will be accused of being insufficiently conservative, whatever that means nowadays?  

    Maybe the anger at Sandy will lead the GOP to take up climate change.  Nah.  There will be a few pundit mea culpas to Nate Silver, who really won’t care in the least.  Dick Morris will employ a weird strap contraption to enable him to suck his own toes (sorry about the visual, folks).

    Oh, and the other guy will declare victory anyway, 10 minutes after conceding to the very same audience…and claim that he’s been 100% consistent in claiming victory and that he’s never lost anything…ever.

    What are you all expecting?

  17. Shaun Appleby

    Political junkie stuff and you need to wade through six whole minutes of Wallace sandbagging Axelrod over Libya to get there but some interesting moustache talk about battlegrounds from the current champion:

    Also loved the ending where Wallace again invites Obama for an interview and Axelrod, when pressed, says, “I’ve learned a few things on your show, Chris”

    To which Wallace replies wistfully, “Well, I’m sorry about that.”

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