Motley Moose – Archive

Well…  It’s on.  Ames straw poll on Saturday, the first genuine debate today.  The Republican primary is off and away.  Eight or nine competitors starting late need to shake up the field in short order and pick a few leaders, the money is waiting to see who comes out of the starting blocks in front.  Who’s it going to be?:

The contest for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, until now a sleepy, shapeless and uninspired affair punctuated by comedic interludes, turns serious this month. A debate, a straw poll in Iowa and the possible entry into the race of Texas Gov. Rick Perry are likely to make the coming weeks the most consequential yet in the campaign.

By the end of August, more will be known about almost every aspect of the race, including the identity of the politician best positioned to challenge the front-runner, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, the staying power of Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and the likely final makeup of the field.

Dan Balz – August will shake the 2012 Republican presidential field Washington Post 7 Aug 11

Is our pool still open?  Time to pick a winner folks.  Update: Ames straw poll results just in:

@FixAaron: Results: Bachmann 4823, Paul 4671, Pawlenty 2293, Santorum 1657, Cain 1456, Romney 567, Gingrich 385, Huntsman 69, McCotter 35 #iastrawpoll

If nothing else surely the end of any reasonable speculation of Palin’s candidacy.  Bachmann beat Pawlenty 2:1, that’s got to be a problem for his campaign.

Consider this:

A fragmentation of power, capital and ideas is creating a new map of the world – with lasting implications for investors and policymakers alike.

The evidence is everywhere. Europe beginning to roll back key aspects of the free market even as it manages yet another bail-out of Greece; the failure of the Copenhagen climate change negotiations; a Doha trade round dead in all but name; the emergence of new global governance structures, such as G-20; the flows of macro-finance investments between emerging markets combining state and business interests; China’s “going out” strategy upending traditional vectors of global capital and influence; an Arab Awakening as much defined by its diversity as its aspiration for accountability and legitimate government; the resurgence of nationalist, populist movements across rich and poor parts of the world; a proliferation of hybrid economic and political systems defying old categories of left and right, liberal and authoritarian.

Nader Mousavizadeh – How we got to the archipelago world Reuters 25 July 11

Looking at Nader’s track record we are inclined to believe he is a post-neoconservative, certainly a voice among the Davos cohort, but he may have a point, here’s the thesis:

Instead, what we’re seeing is an emerging world of sovereign states vertically integrating national interests across the public and private sectors – and then going out strategically to compete for resources, growth and job creation. Having previously understood global interdependence as a reason for horizontal integration across markets and regions, states as diverse as Finland, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Mexico are now pursuing distinct, often bilateral, strategies for economic and political security. This is the new dynamic of global competition – one with implications as profound as they can seem contradictory.

Nader Mousavizadeh – How we got to the archipelago world Reuters 25 July 11

When we see similar “vertical integration” of nativist xenophobia among the skinheads of our respective cultures it may be worth taking notice.

So it has come to this.  Senate Minority Leader McConnell just declined the invitation of Majority Leader Reid, his “friend,” to an up-and-down vote on the Reid amendments.  No surprises there.  But how the hell did we get to this kind of unforced error in the first place?:

It has become commonplace to call the tea party faction in the House “hostage takers.” But they have now become full-blown terrorists.

They have joined the villains of American history who have been sufficiently craven to inflict massive harm on innocent victims to achieve their political goals. A strong America has always stood firm in the face of terrorism. That tradition is in jeopardy, as Congress and President Barack careen toward an uncertain outcome in the tea party-manufactured debt crisis.

William Yeomans – The tea party’s terrorist tactics Politico 29 Jul 11

Harsh words.  Frum, less polemic if perhaps more damningly, also offers criticism:

The original Republican plan was to threaten to tip the country into default unless the GOP got everything it wanted. That threat is proving empty, as Republicans’ business constituencies mutiny against their party’s dangerous tactics.

If blackmail won’t work — and negotiation is not allowed by the party’s own taboos — then the party that asked for everything is on its way to becoming the party that got nothing. Only it’s not just the GOP that is the loser. It’s the whole country.

David Frum – GOP wants Obama’s unconditional surrender CNN 18 July 11

The inflexible brinkmanship demonstrated by Republicans since Obama’s inauguration, while tactically successful in strangling progress and the economy, has reached a climax which may threaten to divide their historic coalition.  How is this a successful or sustainable strategy?

Here is the final instalment of my talk to the Bond University Philosophical Society the other night.  I must thank my hosts for a delightful evening.

The subject was, “Is modern democracy really democracy?,” “Is democracy the best of all systems of government?” and “Does it do more harm than good?.”  It seemed like a stacked deck to me at the time:

So here we are, at our dinner hour, considering if this political model, which has been shaped around our dramatic social evolution of nearly two modern centuries, is our best option.  I think this can be dealt with quite simply with the droll but weighty observation of Winston Churchill:

“It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.”

And we have tried many.  It is hard to conceive how the alternatives, no matter how thoughtfully framed or benign, are not arguably some form of tyranny by modern standards, irrespective of legality.

So what are the merits of “democracy?”

Democracy has two essential virtues; that it is “just” in the sense of the “common good,” a justice that varies with the appropriateness of the contract and the wisdom and integrity of its executors.  And also that it allows the majority the “arbitrary and reckless” opportunity to alter course, indeed reverse themselves, at some point in the future.  

I can always tell when folks have been reading too much Plato.

Ok, fresh off the tablet?

Democracy, as we currently conceive it, was the inspiration of an optimistic Enlightenment; drawing on a corpus of classical thinking which seemed virtuous or useful while tip-toeing around the thrones of reigning monarchs.  

In classical Athens, on any given day, the enfranchised citizens congregated on the Pynx to listen to their orators and demagogues on the issues and vote immediately with white and black pebbles.  That form of direct democracy is reserved today for our juries, when we convene them, and the annual general meetings of our public companies and social clubs.

It is just as well, one might argue.  The contemporary criticism of Athenian direct democracy was that it was “reckless and arbitrary.”

Arguable I suppose but Left Blogistan was in the back of my mind as much as Athens in that last remark.

The following are my desperate, last-minute notes for a short talk on the subject of democracy for the Philosophical Society of Bond University here in Australia next Monday:

I was frankly humbled to consider speaking in the context of “philosophy” until I remembered that it means merely “love of wisdom” and that’s reassuring; though wisdom, like “common sense,” can seem a bit thin on the ground sometimes.  I tend to credit them about equally and admire both where they are found.

Our notions of democracy, I’ve observed, are often entangled and circumscribed by our notions of our “rights;” the right of assembly, the right of habeas corpus, the right of free speech and the right of equitable and honest election of our representatives to the democratic state institutions we have created.  This is fair and reasonable.  

But rights are clearly a “just claim or title” to provisions of a contract between parties, in this case the individual and the state.  It resembles a matter of tort law and while that is not the ideological frame of reference we usually reserve for these notions the parallels are worth considering.

How are we doing so far?

Polls close at 9PM EDT in New York for the special election in New York’s 26th congressional district.  This seat was opened up by the resignation of Congressman Chris “Craigslist” Lee and it is attracting considerable national attention.

While highly favoured to be a safe Republican seat in normal circumstances the presence of a Tea Party candidate, the former Democratic challenger Jack Davis, and the arguably disastrous political miscalculation inherent in the Ryan budget Medicare phase-out has put the seat in play.

Recent polling shows a slight lead for the Democratic challenger, Kathy Hochul, who had aggressively campaigned on the Medicare issue for several weeks:

One day ahead of a special congressional election to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Chris Lee (R) in a traditionally red district, a new PPP poll finds Democrat Kathy Hochul on top by six points.

Among likely voters, Hochul came in at 42%, followed by Republican Jane Corwin at 36%, and Tea Party candidate Jack Davis at 13%.

Jon Terbush – Dem Hochul Leads By Six Points In NY-26 Special Election TPM 23 May 11

Concerns over the result have led the Republicans to dump large sums of money into the campaign in recent weeks, between them the NRCC and American Crossroads have spent over a million dollars on the race in an attempt to pull Corwin’s irons out of the fire.

Update: Hochul for the win.  AP calls it for Hochul at 10:22PM EDT

Republicans are playing chicken with American prosperity.  The stakes could not be higher.  Most Americans see this as another pawn in the endless jostling between politic factions, but it is not.  It stands to reverse the expensive and tentative recovery which we are only beginning to enjoy and throw the American economy into a crisis similar to that of Greece relative to the European Community:

May 14 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said a default arising from failing to raise the debt limit could cause “irrevocable damage” to the economy, risk a “double-dip” recession and increase unemployment.

“Default would not only increase borrowing costs for the federal government, but also for families, businesses and local governments — reducing investment and job creation throughout the economy,” Geithner said in a letter dated yesterday to Senator Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democrat.

Failing to raise the $14.29 trillion debt ceiling would “force the United States to default” on obligations such as payments to service members, citizens, investors and businesses, Geithner wrote. “This would be an unprecedented event in American history. A default would inflict catastrophic, far-reaching damage on our nation’s economy, significantly reducing growth and increasing unemployment.”

Ian Katz and Daniel Enoch – Geithner Says Damage From Debt Default May Be ‘Irrevocable’ Bloomberg 14 May 11

Republicans seem intent to use this opportunity for a Norquist-style drowning of the economy, which they can then blame on the incumbent administration in the run-up to a desperate presidential election cycle.  Is this the party of patriots or economic suicide-bombers?

Well Huckabee won’t be running according to his announcement today.  Have to give credit to Happy for picking long, long ago a credible candidate as the GOP 2012 nominee but there is a long way to go to the convention.

My guy bailed.  I was a bit disappointed, not because I think Huckabee is a great alternative but because he brought a bit of civility to the partisan discourse even though representing the Evangelical wing of the party.  Things like this:

“I think [Obama] has been an exemplary husband to his wife and an extraordinary father to his daughters,” Huckabee said earlier this year. “Frankly, America needs a good role model like that.”

Ben Smith – Huckabee: The loyal opposition Politico 14 May 11

That was refreshing.  On the other hand he has the social values and, in many ways, the world view of a medieval Pope.  So be it.  I was looking forward to a number of other counter-intuitive gestures from him in the course of the campaign.

Now the field is pretty much comprised of looneys, narcissistic publicity seekers and has-beens.  I’m convinced that the Tea Party phenomenon will drive Republicans to an outsider, populist nominee who will further split the traditional Republican coalition of corporate influence and middle-class values voters.  

How about you?  Do you think this is an opportunity for the Establishment or an insurgent?

Largely unnoticed outside of progressive blogs there was a fairly tempting opportunity to assail the Bush tax cuts last year on the basis of national public opinion polling.  But the Obama administration and Congress let it pass.  Why?

Perhaps they understand the Republican coalition better than Republicans do.  This is a cohort which can not only hold two opposing thoughts but remain oblivious to the contradiction.  Congressional Republicans walked straight into a minefield with their deficit reducing “entitlements” roll-back:

The problem was underscored last week when Republicans bowed to political realities on their signature issue of entitlement reform, acknowledging that a plan to overhaul and eventually privatize Medicare would not advance anytime soon, and would not be part of a deal with the White House to raise the government’s borrowing limit.

Democrats have attacked the Medicare proposal, and polls have shown formidable public disapproval of it. Many Republican lawmakers ran into a wall of voter opposition during a congressional spring recess.

Kathleen Hennessey and Lisa Mascaro – GOP finding it hard to make progress LAT 7 May 11

That was an unforced political error of significant proportions.  We understand their constituency; when they complain about “entitlements” they are complaining about other people receiving them; seems they are something like a VA benefit for patriotic, God-fearing Republicans.  Who knew?