Motley Moose – Archive

The delegate math says that Romney gets a boost today; Santorum failed to qualify for delegates in some districts of Ohio and is not even on the ballot in Virginia.  But lacking the clear wins he desperately needs in Ohio and Tennessee, where polling indicates statistical ties, will Romney see his own shadow and retreat back to more weeks of interminable campaigning?  

Unless Santorum squeaks out wins in both states, probably not:

…once the Death Star got focused, Santorum’s numbers began to bleed. Tennessee would appear to be the key. If Santorum holds on there, he can argue plausibly that Romney still cannot close the deal with the voters he needs the most in the fall. A Republican candidate with a demonstrable weakness in the South is every Republican playa’s worst nightmare. But this still remains a contest between an actual campaign and three cults of personality. ‘Twas ever thus.

Charles P Pierce – How Romneybot 2.0 Built His Super Tuesday Death Star Esquire 6 Mar 12

Now this is not the end.  It is not even the beginning of the end.  But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

It seems the Republican circus has now gotten to the trapeze act with no net.  Recent polling for Arizona and Michigan suggests both are statistical ties with Michigan poised to be an all-night cliffhanger.  Romney faces a potentially disastrous defeat and Santorum, well, any momentum he wins or loses is unlikely to change his clear intention to wage electoral jihad.  

And they are both clearly doing themselves no favours:

Both Willard Romney and Rick Santorum – and have I mentioned recently what a colossal dick the latter is? – ought to thank their personal deities that they’re not racehorses. Because, if they were, and given the way they’re both limping towards the finish line in Michigan and Arizona today, we’d already have the screen up, the syringe at the ready, and the veterinary ambulance discreetly parked off to one side.

Charles P Pierce – The Michigan Primary and the GOP’s Bloody Uprising Esquire 28 Feb 12

At this point it is hard to imagine how a win or loss for either changes the fundamentals of an increasingly toxic and historically damaging nomination for the GOP.  Pass the popcorn, please, and make it the good stuff.

The Republican primary continues to lurch forward with three contests today; Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.  None of these are binding in the allocation of delegates:

It is not a pretty image, believe you me.

Now, as the latest chapter in this drama, the Republican National Committee felt obliged to send out an e-mail reminding reporters that today’s voting in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota will mean sweet fk-all, despite what you may hear from John King and my man Chuck Todd.

Charles P Pierce – The RNC Clusterfk Esquire 7 Feb 12

Notwithstanding, there may be something at stake here for the Romney campaign which lit up recently with an unusual objection to the methodology of a specific poll, largely on the grounds of this little nugget:

According to ABC’s poll out this morning, by a 2 to 1 margin voters say the more they learn about Mitt Romney, the less they like him.

Josh Marshall – Taking a Toll TPM 6 Feb 12

Romney’s favourability is declining nationally as Obama’s enjoys a modest rise.  Not to mention that with Santorum leading in Missouri and competitive elsewhere the Romney juggernaut just might lose two out of three; a concern further evident by their pivot to attacking Santorum in recent days.

So, as far as delegates are concerned these events don’t amount to much but as a potential deflation of the Romney campaign with an upset or two it may be worth watching.

I don’t know whether many people (especially on the left) had the stomach to watch this 90 minute exercise in silliness and futility, but I personally am a bit of a masochist. I sat through the full thing, knowing all the while that it was over an hour of my life I could never get back. For the most part, little of interest was said, though I must confess to a few points of agreement on my part with a couple of the candidates (95% disagreement of course). There were even some laughs scattered throughout, so I can hardly call it a complete waste, can I?

Let’s have a look at what was on the table tonight.