Motley Moose – Archive

Whoops.  It has been a very tough week for the GOP, desperately seeking consensus on issues of ideology and electability while rounding the first turn in their contest to select a presidential nominee.  And then it got stunningly worse after the collapse of their most recent favourite, Rick Perry, in the recent Orlando debate.  The conservative establishment quickly turned on him with the bitterness of a disappointed lover.  Perry’s back in the pack if not out altogether.

The Florida GOP straw poll results are in and it is pretty hard to fathom:

   Herman Cain: 37.11%

   Rick Perry: 15.43%

   Mitt Romney: 14%

   Rick Santorum: 10.88%

   Ron Paul: 10.39%

   Newt Gingrich: 8.43%

   Jon Huntsman: 2.26%

   Michele Bachmann: 1.51%

That’s a nasty spanking for Perry, who invested heavily in this poll, in a must-win state for him.  And while Romney has retained fund-raising momentum and blunted Perry’s brief rise in the give-and-take of recent weeks it is also clear that his “front-runner” status is limited by a fairly low ceiling of support among evangelicals and Tea Partiers.  Michele Bachmann’s star has fallen to new lows since her “fifteen-minutes” following her Ames straw poll win.

So, Bachmann clobbers Pawlenty, Perry clobbers Bachmann, Romney smothers Perry and the remaining cast of characters just can’t break through.  This recent upset by Cain seems more of a vote of no confidence in Perry than a sign of real resurgence for the pizza mogul, whose lack of foreign policy nous and odd tax reform proposals tend to disqualify him as a serious national candidate.

Labor Day well gone and the GOP is still looking for an electoral saviour?  It’s getting late folks.  Republicans are in serious trouble and they know it.  Pass the popcorn.

The starters have left the gate and they’re off.  Michele “Speaks From God” Bachmann stirred the punters briefly with her Ames Straw Poll victory but was promptly sasquatched by good ol’ Rick Perry’s cannonball entrance.  Huntsman morphed into the sane alternative and subsists on earned media; tells Tea Party, “Bite me” but the tea leaves say “Not this time.”

Newt does well in debates but seems headed to repeat Fred Thompson’s performance art experiment while Rudy won’t commit ’till after the 9/11 observances free him for other duties.  Chris “Get off the damn beach” Christie is yet to be called.  And Sarah, bless her grifter heart, is left to pimp her PAC.

Romney trims his sails and tries to stay upwind of the scrum but puts in an appearance to kiss De Mint’s ring which Perry unexpectedly “misses” due to prior engagements; prayers notwithstanding.

Paul gets his day in the media but fails to inspire.  Cain is unable.  Santorum wanders deeper into postmodern ultraconservative irrelevance.  For all the values sanctity and financial probity demanded and promised by candidates for this “mother of all GOP nominations” the big question remains, “Who’s in the money?”

Debate countdown here.  Or submit a “yes/no” question via Twitter with hashtag #reagandebate (as if.)

Well, it surely is on.  Presidential quote of the day?:

Obama also mocked the tea party, without mentioning it by name, and Republican candidates who sign anti-tax and other pledges.

“I take an oath,” he said. “I don’t go around signing pledges.”

Jim Kuhnhenn – Obama Holds Town Hall Meetings As Bus Tour Rolls Through Illinois Huffington Post 17 Aug 11

Well said, sir.  And a reminder the search for a commander-in-chief is already well under way and we are sure gettin’ a big vaccination dose of Governor Rick Perry:

The governor angered even some Republicans after he said Monday night it would be “almost… treasonous” for the Fed to expand the money supply to try to improve the economy. He also said things could get “ugly” for Mr. Bernanke back in the Lone Star State.

“Threatening the Fed chairman is probably not a good idea,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said Tuesday.

The Perry campaign suggested Tuesday the governor is getting used to a national campaign after building a public persona in Texas that includes antagonizing Washington with eyebrow-raising remarks. “There are always new things to learn,” Ray Sullivan, the governor’s communications’ director told Washington Wire. Mr. Perry was noticeably more soft-spoken Tuesday during campaign stops in Iowa.

Danny Yadron – Perry: ‘I Got in Trouble Talking About the Fed’ WSJ 17 Aug 11

Though insider opinion was that Perry would rather be talking about that than the initial criticism he immediately received from the Right.  Michele is lighting up the tubes with the fact-checking on recent remarks she would have easily breezed over in the past.  And one of her Ames facilitators turns out to be a spooky sort of Christianist mercenary in a past Ugandan incident.  Santorum defends the honour of the Federal Reserve.  Paul supporters decry their lack of earned media, though everyone seems to get it they are a “mile deep and an inch wide.”  Huntsman turns out to be a “climate change” non-sceptic (so 2016).  Rove tells us, belatedly, that we are not a “Christian nation.”  And Obama, bless his retail heart, is on a bus tour.

All candidates’ staffers cleaning straw and cow-flops off the shoes of their respective charges?  Check.  The campaign has begun.

Republicans are playing chicken with American prosperity.  The stakes could not be higher.  Most Americans see this as another pawn in the endless jostling between politic factions, but it is not.  It stands to reverse the expensive and tentative recovery which we are only beginning to enjoy and throw the American economy into a crisis similar to that of Greece relative to the European Community:

May 14 (Bloomberg) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said a default arising from failing to raise the debt limit could cause “irrevocable damage” to the economy, risk a “double-dip” recession and increase unemployment.

“Default would not only increase borrowing costs for the federal government, but also for families, businesses and local governments — reducing investment and job creation throughout the economy,” Geithner said in a letter dated yesterday to Senator Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democrat.

Failing to raise the $14.29 trillion debt ceiling would “force the United States to default” on obligations such as payments to service members, citizens, investors and businesses, Geithner wrote. “This would be an unprecedented event in American history. A default would inflict catastrophic, far-reaching damage on our nation’s economy, significantly reducing growth and increasing unemployment.”

Ian Katz and Daniel Enoch – Geithner Says Damage From Debt Default May Be ‘Irrevocable’ Bloomberg 14 May 11

Republicans seem intent to use this opportunity for a Norquist-style drowning of the economy, which they can then blame on the incumbent administration in the run-up to a desperate presidential election cycle.  Is this the party of patriots or economic suicide-bombers?

Well Huckabee won’t be running according to his announcement today.  Have to give credit to Happy for picking long, long ago a credible candidate as the GOP 2012 nominee but there is a long way to go to the convention.

My guy bailed.  I was a bit disappointed, not because I think Huckabee is a great alternative but because he brought a bit of civility to the partisan discourse even though representing the Evangelical wing of the party.  Things like this:

“I think [Obama] has been an exemplary husband to his wife and an extraordinary father to his daughters,” Huckabee said earlier this year. “Frankly, America needs a good role model like that.”

Ben Smith – Huckabee: The loyal opposition Politico 14 May 11

That was refreshing.  On the other hand he has the social values and, in many ways, the world view of a medieval Pope.  So be it.  I was looking forward to a number of other counter-intuitive gestures from him in the course of the campaign.

Now the field is pretty much comprised of looneys, narcissistic publicity seekers and has-beens.  I’m convinced that the Tea Party phenomenon will drive Republicans to an outsider, populist nominee who will further split the traditional Republican coalition of corporate influence and middle-class values voters.  

How about you?  Do you think this is an opportunity for the Establishment or an insurgent?

Largely unnoticed outside of progressive blogs there was a fairly tempting opportunity to assail the Bush tax cuts last year on the basis of national public opinion polling.  But the Obama administration and Congress let it pass.  Why?

Perhaps they understand the Republican coalition better than Republicans do.  This is a cohort which can not only hold two opposing thoughts but remain oblivious to the contradiction.  Congressional Republicans walked straight into a minefield with their deficit reducing “entitlements” roll-back:

The problem was underscored last week when Republicans bowed to political realities on their signature issue of entitlement reform, acknowledging that a plan to overhaul and eventually privatize Medicare would not advance anytime soon, and would not be part of a deal with the White House to raise the government’s borrowing limit.

Democrats have attacked the Medicare proposal, and polls have shown formidable public disapproval of it. Many Republican lawmakers ran into a wall of voter opposition during a congressional spring recess.

Kathleen Hennessey and Lisa Mascaro – GOP finding it hard to make progress LAT 7 May 11

That was an unforced political error of significant proportions.  We understand their constituency; when they complain about “entitlements” they are complaining about other people receiving them; seems they are something like a VA benefit for patriotic, God-fearing Republicans.  Who knew?